Pool A automatic bids
Hobart - Liberty League
Salisbury - Empire 8
Kean - New Jersey Athletic Conference
Delaware Valley - Middle Atlantic Conference
Norwich - East Coast Football Conference
Western New England - New England Football Conference
Pool C At Large Bids
Endicott - New England Football Conference
We do not believe a two-loss team from Eastern Region will be afforded a birth in the NCAA tournament. With the way Widener (8-2) and Monclair (8-2) lost on the final Saturday of the season, they likely made the decision easier for the committee.
We are projecting Endicott to get the only Pool C bid from the east. Our rationale is that the NCAA committee commonly quotes the highly flawed Strength of Schedule (SOS) metric, which Endicott happens to rank highly in. We won't go into the simple methodology used to create the SOS, nor compare it to the various computer functions which are available, and far more telling of a team's strength of schedule.
Suffice it so say, Endicott has a pretty record (9-1) and a high SOS. That will get them in over St John Fisher (8-2), who played much stronger competition, and who we believe would beat Endicott convincingly on a neutral field. Cortland (8-2) may be the best two loss team on the outside looking in. But we see no way they would get in before Montclair, since Montclair won head-to-head 34-33.
That is seven teams, which means we need one more team to fill the bracket. Unfortunately, we believe the East Region will once again be denied an opportunity to crown its own champion. Enter the North Region's Mount Union as the #1 seed...again.
Differences in Opinion
D3Football.com has released its projections. They are the same as ours in terms of who gets in from the east. However D3Football.com projects Salisbury to be placed in the south bracket, with Albion being imported from the north to the east.
This is a very realistic possibility, but we believe the east bracket will remain seven eastern regional teams, plus Mount Union.
Our Projected Seeding
- Mount Union
- Delaware Valley
- Kean
- Salisbury
- Hobart
- Western New England
- Endicott
- Norwich
3 comments:
I am coming around to accepting Endicott will be in the bracket but still feel like the Albion import may happen as well. I also feel like Salisbury could stay in this bracket b/c they were rated by NCAA in the "East" and it would avoid a Wesley-Salisbury rematch early in the tourney.
As long as the rematch doesn't happen in the First Round, then there's no need to mind that rematch potential by the Committee.
Right. By shifting one of the teams to a 2/3 instead of a 4/5, they can avoid the match up until the bracket final, if they get that far.
It may be wishful thinking but I want to see Salisbury in the east/MUC bracket, representing the Empire 8.
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