Can Fisher upset Hopkins?

St. John Fisher looks to make good on their Pool C bid to the NCAA tournament when they travel to Johns Hopkins for Saturday's first round match up. The Pool C bid to Fisher was one of the biggest surprises of the tournament bracket announcement last Sunday.

The St. John Fisher Cardinals (8-2) will be representing themselves, and all eastern teams, when they take on the Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (10-0). They can only prove they belong in this game if they win.

Learning from Past Mistakes

Johns Hopkins is outscoring its opponents 43 to 12 on average, and generating a mind blowing 500 yards of offense per game.

The set up to this game feels similar to the long trip to Maryland to play Salisbury two weeks ago. Salisbury was destroying league competition with gaudy numbers of its own. In the end, St. John Fisher fell to Salisbury 41-21. But a closer look at the numbers suggests the game was tighter than the final score indicated.

The Cardinals were nearly even in total yardage with Salisbury, but committed two turnovers while not causing one. They also missed a short field goal. But the biggest failing for the Cardinals was scoring just once on five trips inside the Salisbury red zone, while giving up four touchdowns to Salisbury on trips inside the Cardinals red zone.

For St. John Fisher to have a shot at victory, they must take advantage of their scoring opportunities with touchdowns, instead of field goal attempts. Further, they will need to bend but not break against the high powered Hopkins offense.

A Different Challenge

Whereas Salisbury is an option run attack, Johns Hopkins' offense revolves around the passing game. Quarterback Hewett Tomlin has passed for 2459 yards and completed 69% of his passes. The Blue Jays have yielded only 11 sacks in 2011.

One way we see Fisher pulling the upset is if they can get pressure on Tomlin, and force him to make some bad throws. However, the Cardinals sacked the quarterback only 15 times in 2011. They may need to gamble with some blitz packages if they hope to pressure Tomlin. But that may mean getting burned down the field.

It looks like the best chance for Fisher is simply to keep the ball away from Johns Hopkins. Quarterback Ryan Kramer will need to post a big game rushing the ball, and keep the Blue Jays honest with some accurate play action passing. Further, it is important that Fisher wins the red zone battle. That means converting on their offensive red zone opportunities with a higher percentage of touchdowns than Johns Hopkins. If the defense can force Hopkins to settle for field goal attempts, this game will get very interesting.

Our pick to win is Hopkins. We believe Fisher belongs in this tournament, but they will need to play a much more efficient game than they did against Salisbury if they hope to pull off the upset.